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Setup track record

What each kind of setup would have done if you had followed it: the engine replayed through history, one session at a time, with no look-ahead.

Current setups
Resolved setups
3,153
3,648 signals in total
Reached target first
13%
of resolved setups
Average result
−0.13R
per setup, in units of risk
Securities replayed
2,389 of 3,991
most-traded first; fills in over the day

Out of sample: does each kind hold up?

Trials split at Feb 24, 2026; a kind earns a grade only when both halves agree

SetupGradeResolvedAvg resultFirst halfSecond half
Bullish · Wave C under wayPositive record2,346+0.18R+0.18R (1,186)+0.19R (1,160)
Bullish · Wave 4 pullbackPositive record243+0.17R+0.13R (93)+0.20R (150)
Bullish · Wave 5 under wayPositive record141+0.14R+0.03R (62)+0.23R (79)
Bullish · Five waves completePositive record457+0.13R+0.12R (197)+0.13R (260)
Bullish · Wave 3 under wayPositive record593+0.12R+0.15R (359)+0.09R (234)
Bullish · Correction completeMixed record1,608+0.08R−0.05R (691)+0.18R (917)
Bearish · Wave 3 under wayMixed record316−0.11R+0.00R (173)−0.23R (143)
Bearish · Five waves completeNegative record480−0.18R−0.20R (246)−0.16R (234)
Bearish · Wave C under wayNegative record1,358−0.19R−0.11R (770)−0.30R (588)
Bearish · Wave 4 pullbackLittle history109−0.29R−0.37R (35)−0.25R (74)
Bearish · Correction completeNegative record2,015−0.29R−0.22R (946)−0.34R (1,069)
Bearish · Wave 5 under wayLittle history43−0.33R−0.30R (17)−0.35R (26)
GradesEach setup kind and side is graded from its replayed trials, split at the median trial date so the two halves test each other out of sample. Positive: average at least +0.05R overall and above zero in both halves. Negative: at most −0.05R overall and below zero in both halves. Mixed: anything else. Little history: under 100 resolved cases or under 40 in either half. The replay covers a year in which U.S. stocks mostly rose, which favors bullish setups.Used forThe Setups screen ranks by this record by default and can leave negative kinds out; Mission Control leaves them out.

By setup

Any confidenceMedium or higher (58+)High (70+)1.5 : 1 or better2 : 1 or better
SetupResolvedHit rateAvg resultStoppedExpiredMissedMedian daysPending
Bearish Correction complete1,0278%−0.40R769172018172
Bullish Correction complete88417%+0.07R57915101873
Bearish Five waves complete24810%−0.22R17943019
46
Bullish Five waves complete26115%+0.14R1715001827
Bullish Wave C under way22913%+0.23R6413506046
Bearish Wave C under way1596%−0.32R866304122
Bullish Wave 4 pullback9518%+0.01R6216263125
Bullish Wave 3 under way9720%−0.08R661201510
Bearish Wave 3 under way8518%−0.14R61901312
Bearish Wave 4 pullback534%−0.47R381326358
Bullish Wave 5 under waysmall sample1020%−0.08R71018.52
Bearish Wave 5 under waysmall sample520%−0.29R40080
MethodEach security's stored daily history is replayed: at every fifth session after the first 250, the engine runs on the bars up to that day only, and the setup it would have shown is followed for up to 60 sessions. The first of stop or target decides it (the stop when one bar touches both); otherwise it expires, marked to the close. Results are in R, multiples of the initial risk. Fills at the close or the entry edge, no costs or slippage, and only securities listed today (survivorship). Past results don't predict future ones.Reading itA hit rate below 50% can still be profitable when winners are larger than losers; the average result shows which. Small samples (under about 30 resolved) are noise.