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Setup track record

What each kind of setup would have done if you had followed it: the engine replayed through history, one session at a time, with no look-ahead.

Current setups
Resolved setups
9,709
11,753 signals in total
Reached target first
20%
of resolved setups
Average result
−0.03R
per setup, in units of risk
Securities replayed
2,389 of 3,991
most-traded first; fills in over the day

Out of sample: does each kind hold up?

Trials split at Feb 24, 2026; a kind earns a grade only when both halves agree

SetupGradeResolvedAvg resultFirst halfSecond half
Bullish · Wave C under wayPositive record2,346+0.18R+0.18R (1,186)+0.19R (1,160)
Bullish · Wave 4 pullbackPositive record243+0.17R+0.13R (93)+0.20R (150)
Bullish · Wave 5 under wayPositive record141+0.14R+0.03R (62)+0.23R (79)
Bullish · Five waves completePositive record457+0.13R+0.12R (197)+0.13R (260)
Bullish · Wave 3 under wayPositive record593+0.12R+0.15R (359)+0.09R (234)
Bullish · Correction completeMixed record1,608+0.08R−0.05R (691)+0.18R (917)
Bearish · Wave 3 under wayMixed record316−0.11R+0.00R (173)−0.23R (143)
Bearish · Five waves completeNegative record480−0.18R−0.20R (246)−0.16R (234)
Bearish · Wave C under wayNegative record1,358−0.19R−0.11R (770)−0.30R (588)
Bearish · Wave 4 pullbackLittle history109−0.29R−0.37R (35)−0.25R (74)
Bearish · Correction completeNegative record2,015−0.29R−0.22R (946)−0.34R (1,069)
Bearish · Wave 5 under wayLittle history43−0.33R−0.30R (17)−0.35R (26)
GradesEach setup kind and side is graded from its replayed trials, split at the median trial date so the two halves test each other out of sample. Positive: average at least +0.05R overall and above zero in both halves. Negative: at most −0.05R overall and below zero in both halves. Mixed: anything else. Little history: under 100 resolved cases or under 40 in either half. The replay covers a year in which U.S. stocks mostly rose, which favors bullish setups.Used forThe Setups screen ranks by this record by default and can leave negative kinds out; Mission Control leaves them out.

By setup

Any confidenceMedium or higher (58+)High (70+)1.5 : 1 or better2 : 1 or better
SetupResolvedHit rateAvg resultStoppedExpiredMissedMedian daysPending
Bullish Wave C under way2,34619%+0.18R3671,524060534
Bearish Correction complete2,01518%−0.29R1,329331020340
Bullish Correction complete1,60829%+0.08R935213018
169
Bearish Wave C under way1,35813%−0.19R552625052.5377
Bullish Wave 3 under way59318%+0.12R14134406085
Bearish Five waves complete48020%−0.18R3147201795
Bullish Five waves complete45728%+0.13R2696201747
Bullish Wave 4 pullback24329%+0.17R93791103665
Bearish Wave 3 under way31622%−0.11R1569102854
Bearish Wave 4 pullback1097%−0.29R5942844412
Bullish Wave 5 under way14128%+0.14R356705760
Bearish Wave 5 under way4314%−0.33R241302312
MethodEach security's stored daily history is replayed: at every fifth session after the first 250, the engine runs on the bars up to that day only, and the setup it would have shown is followed for up to 60 sessions. The first of stop or target decides it (the stop when one bar touches both); otherwise it expires, marked to the close. Results are in R, multiples of the initial risk. Fills at the close or the entry edge, no costs or slippage, and only securities listed today (survivorship). Past results don't predict future ones.Reading itA hit rate below 50% can still be profitable when winners are larger than losers; the average result shows which. Small samples (under about 30 resolved) are noise.