ZBIO

Zenas BioPharma, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

28.18

+1.47 (+5.50%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveZigzag, wave C up (Pattern Confidence 57); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 29.92–30.92 (5 relationships), +7.9% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −10.5% (behind SPY by 13.4 points); 6 months +37.9%.

RegimeMixed−5.9% vs the 50-day average, +14.7% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 74% vs 102% over the year; 1-year drawdown −64.8%; beta 0.74.

ZBIO setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

ZBIO · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 24.25 on Oct 15, 2026. 76 labelings tested, 54 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 54 labelings were eliminated

21Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
12Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
6Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
3Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
3Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 28.18

28.18close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

29.92 – 30.92+7.9% from the close

5 relationships · strength 5.1 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

30.92ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
30.31ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave B · Intermediate · EWF
30.27ProjectionWave D = 61.8% of wave C · Minor · EWF
30.18Swing61.8% retracement of the decline 2026-09-22 → 2026-10-15 · Minor · Basics
29.92RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

The intermediate-degree scenario was held back

Its levels didn't pass Viridia's checks: invalidation over 25% away. It's listed for review instead of shown.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 711.1K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $18.0M
SEC CIK: 0001953926
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: ZBIO · massive: ZBIO
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (24.25, Oct 15, 2026) price has moved +16.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Zigzag up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction up.

A-B from 13.50, Jan 5, 2026

Pattern Confidence57Low

2 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−52.1% from close

13.50

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C+59.0% from close

44.80

Wave C = 100% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone+7.9% from close

29.92–30.92

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 44.60, Dec 24, 2025

Pattern Confidence50Low

3 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed