XLE

State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

68.24

+1.68 (+2.52%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedImpulse, wave 5 up (Pattern Confidence 75); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 68.41–68.94 (5 relationships), +0.6% from the close.

MomentumStrong3 months +17.8% (ahead of SPY by 14.9 points); 6 months +24.0%.

RegimeUptrend+7.4% vs the 50-day average, +18.4% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 23% vs 22% over the year; 1-year drawdown −15.6%; beta -0.41.

XLE setup history6 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

XLE · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 60.95 on Sep 29, 2026. 118 labelings tested, 78 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 78 labelings were eliminated

42Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
8Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
8Expanding triangle: C ends beyond A's end, D beyond B's end, and E beyond C's end
5Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
5Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
4Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 68.24

68.24close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

68.41 – 68.94+0.6% from the close

5 relationships · strength 7 · Intermediate, Primary, Minor degrees

68.94ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Minor · Essentials
68.82ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Primary · Essentials · secondary ratio
68.78ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials
68.45ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Intermediate · Essentials
68.41ProjectionWave 5 = 161.8% of wave 1 · Intermediate · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.01 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 30.12M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $2.09B
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: XLE · massive: XLE
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (60.95, Sep 29, 2026) price has moved +12.0%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↑, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 4 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Impulse up · wave 5 ↑

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave advance (impulse).

1-2-3-4 from 42.05, Aug 11, 2025

Pattern Confidence75High

7 of 8 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−31.6% from close

46.66

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 5+0.3% from close

68.45

Wave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3)

Nearest confluence zone+0.6% from close

68.41–68.94

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction up.

A-B from 52.62, Jul 1, 2026

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 7 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed