VTEC

Vanguard California Tax-Exempt Bond ETF

Cboe BZX · ETF

95.41

+0.05 (+0.05%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveDefensiveFlat, wave C down (Pattern Confidence 50); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 95.75–96.29 (3 relationships), +0.6% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −4.1% (behind SPY by 7.0 points); 6 months −4.8%.

RegimeDowntrend−1.2% vs the 50-day average, −3.8% vs the 200-day.

RiskElevated20-day volatility 7% vs 3% over the year; 1-year drawdown −8.1%; beta 0.09.

VTEC setup history0 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

VTEC · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 101.90 on Feb 27, 2026. 6 labelings tested, 4 broke a hard rule, 2 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 4 labelings were eliminated

3Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
1Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 95.41

95.41close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

95.75 – 96.29+0.6% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.6 · Minor degree

96.29ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
96.23RetracementWave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF
95.75ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The rules set no stop for the wave in progress, so there is no defined risk. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 873.7K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $128.9M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: VTEC · massive: VTEC
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (101.90, Feb 27, 2026) price has moved −6.4%, the way the count expects.2 of 2 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Flat down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction down.

A-B from 101.50, Sep 30, 2024

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation

None yet

The rules set no level for this state.

Target, wave C−2.9% from close

92.65

Wave C = 123.6% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone+0.6% from close

95.75–96.29

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

All 2 rule-valid counts at this degree tell the same story, starting from different points. There is no competing reading yet.

Why this count is preferred · 0 met, 0 not met

Met

None.

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed