VNQ

Vanguard Real Estate ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

91.76

+0.32 (+0.35%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal, wave 3 up (Pattern Confidence 60); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 92.62–93.34 (4 relationships), +1.3% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −7.8% (behind SPY by 10.6 points); 6 months −5.1%.

RegimeDowntrend−2.7% vs the 50-day average, −2.8% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 15% vs 14% over the year; 1-year drawdown −12.1%; beta 0.32.

VNQ setup history6 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

VNQ · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 88.11 on Oct 8, 2026. 56 labelings tested, 43 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 43 labelings were eliminated

30Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
7Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
3Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
3Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 91.76

91.76close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

92.62 – 93.34+1.3% from the close

4 relationships · strength 5.6 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

93.34Swing38.2% retracement of the decline 2026-07-28 → 2026-10-08 · Intermediate · Basics
93.13ProjectionWave E = 61.8% of wave C · Intermediate · Essentials
93.13RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Intermediate · Viridia
92.62ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Wave 3 under way

Wave 3 is under way. It is usually the longest and strongest wave, and the count is wrong only if price crosses the invalidation level.

Pattern Confidence 60 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

91.76

Latest close

Invalidation−5.4% from close

86.84

wave 2 cannot retrace beyond the start of wave 1 (hard rule)

Structural target+12.3% from close

103.07

Wave 3 = 100% of wave 1

Reward : risk

2.3 : 1

Invalidation 5.4% from the reference level · 3.9 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 18% of 593 past cases, averaging +0.12R. It made money in both halves of the replay (+0.15R, then +0.09R). Method

Close call: the alternate count scores within a few points of the preferred one.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 3.76M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $436.6M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: VNQ · massive: VNQ
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (88.11, Oct 8, 2026) price has moved +4.1%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag complete ↓, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal up · wave 3 ↑

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 86.84, Mar 27, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−5.4% from close

86.84

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 3+12.3% from close

103.07

Wave 3 = 100% of wave 1

Nearest confluence zone+1.3% from close

92.62–93.34

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Flat up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction up.

A-B from 86.84, Mar 27, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 1 met, 0 not met

Met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed