VGSH

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

57.69

+0.07 (+0.12%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveNo countNo rule-valid wave count yet.

FibonacciNo zoneNo confluence zone near price.

MomentumWeak3 months −0.7% (behind SPY by 3.5 points); 6 months −1.5%.

RegimeDowntrend−0.2% vs the 50-day average, −1.0% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 2% vs 2% over the year; 1-year drawdown −2.6%; beta 0.02.

VGSH setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

VGSH · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Unranked

Not enough confirmed swings at this degree yet.

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 57.69

No price band within 35% of the close has two or more independent Fibonacci relationships.

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

There is no rule-valid count at this degree. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 6.01M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $336.9M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: VGSH · massive: VGSH
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

VGSH

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed