VAW

Vanguard Materials ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

226.23

+0.86 (+0.38%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveFlat complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 227.91–229.37 (4 relationships), +1.1% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +0.1% (behind SPY by 2.8 points); 6 months −3.4%.

RegimeDowntrend−1.1% vs the 50-day average, −1.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 14% vs 19% over the year; 1-year drawdown −13.4%; beta 0.88.

VAW setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

VAW · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 214.55 on Oct 1, 2026. 84 labelings tested, 60 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 60 labelings were eliminated

30Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
12Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
4Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
4Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1 (computed on load), bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 226.23

226.23close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

227.91 – 229.37+1.1% from the close

4 relationships · strength 4.2 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

229.37RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Intermediate · Viridia
228.46Swing50% retracement of the decline 2026-08-26 → 2026-10-01 · Intermediate · Basics · secondary ratio
228.25RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Minor · Viridia · secondary ratio
227.91ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.27 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 76.0K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $20.7M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: VAW · massive: VAW
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (214.55, Oct 1, 2026) price has moved +5.4%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: flat wave C ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Flat down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave flat correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 238.54, May 7, 2026

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−5.2% from close

214.55

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+1.4% from close

229.37

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+1.1% from close

227.91–229.37

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Triangle down · wave D ↑

Price is in wave D of a sideways triangle.

A-B-C from 240.89, Jun 17, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

1 of 2 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave C ends slightly beyond wave A (regular), substantially beyond (expanded), or short of it after an extended B (running)
Wave C measures 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A, depending on the flat type
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The flat is a regular or expanded flat; running flats are a rare variation

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to downtrend.
Oct 15, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Flat complete ↑ (confidence 67).
Oct 15, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Flat complete ↑.
Oct 15, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (up) and weekly (down) counts no longer agree.
Oct 15, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 227.98.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 217.45.
Oct 7, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 210.17.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 230.9.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 224.73.
Sep 30, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 207.72.
Sep 28, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 210.62.

Last swing high

242.38

Aug 26, 2026

Last swing low

214.55

Oct 1, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.