UWMC

UWM Holdings Corporation Class A

NYSE · Common stock

1.10

+0.04 (+3.77%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse, wave 4 up (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 0.93–0.98 (3 relationships), −13.2% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −40.2% (behind SPY by 43.1 points); 6 months −70.6%.

RegimeDowntrend−15.9% vs the 50-day average, −62.6% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 80% vs 69% over the year; 1-year drawdown −83.4%; beta 1.60.

UWMC setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

UWMC · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 0.9303 on Aug 6, 2026. 178 labelings tested, 112 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 112 labelings were eliminated

48Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
19Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
10Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
10Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
9Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
8Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 1.10

1.10close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

0.9328 – 0.9761−13.2% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.2 · Minor degree

0.9761ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
0.9565ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Minor · Essentials
0.9328ProjectionWave 5 = 61.8% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

The intermediate-degree scenario was held back

Its levels didn't pass Viridia's checks: reference level over 30% from price; invalidation over 25% away; invalidation over 8 ATR away; target over 100% or 25 ATR away. It's listed for review instead of shown.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 13.05M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $14.1M
SEC CIK: 0001783398
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: UWMC · massive: UWMC
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (0.9303, Aug 6, 2026) price has moved +18.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Impulse down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2-3 from 7.14, Sep 11, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+289.1% from close

4.28

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 4+86.4% from close

2.05

Wave 4 near the prior fourth wave of lesser degree (2026-07-29)

Nearest confluence zone−13.2% from close

0.9328–0.9761

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Flat up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction up.

A-B from 3.79, Feb 25, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed