UNG

United States Natural Gas Fund LP

NYSE Arca · ETF

10.66

−0.43 (−3.88%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedZigzag complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 60); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 10.1–10.27 (3 relationships), −4.5% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +3.6% (ahead of SPY by 0.7 points); 6 months −1.7%.

RegimeMixed+1.8% vs the 50-day average, −5.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 50% vs 59% over the year; 1-year drawdown −43.0%; beta -0.63.

UNG setup history7 resolved: 1 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

UNG · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 11.67 on Sep 24, 2026. 112 labelings tested, 85 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 85 labelings were eliminated

36Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
16Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
15Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
6Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
4Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
4Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 10.66

10.66close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

10.10 – 10.27−4.5% from the close

3 relationships · strength 3.4 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

10.27RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
10.11RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Intermediate · Viridia · secondary ratio
10.10ProjectionWave C = 161.8% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 60 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

10.66

Latest close

Invalidation+9.5% from close

11.67

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target−10.5% from close

9.55

Move after the correction retraces 100% of A–C

Reward : risk

1.1 : 1

Invalidation 9.5% from the reference level · 2.6 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 18% of 2,015 past cases, averaging −0.29R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.22R, then −0.34R), so treat it with caution. Method

Close call: the alternate count scores within a few points of the preferred one.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 21.38M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $362.7M
SEC CIK: 0001376227
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: UNG · massive: UNG
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (11.67, Sep 24, 2026) price has moved −8.7%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↓, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 9.55, Aug 6, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+9.5% from close

11.67

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−10.5% from close

9.55

Move after the correction retraces 100% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone−4.5% from close

10.10–10.27

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal up · wave 4 ↓

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 9.55, Aug 6, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed