TWM

ProShares UltraShort Russell2000

NYSE Arca · ETF

25.54

+0.82 (+3.32%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 69); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 25.64–25.92 (4 relationships), +0.9% from the close.

MomentumStrong3 months +16.6% (ahead of SPY by 13.8 points); 6 months +2.1%.

RegimeMixed+13.5% vs the 50-day average, +2.2% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 28% vs 37% over the year; 1-year drawdown −46.3%; beta -2.36.

TWM setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

TWM · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 20.16 on Aug 14, 2026. 270 labelings tested, 166 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 166 labelings were eliminated

60Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
29Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
29Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
15Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
9Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
8Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 25.54

25.54close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

25.64 – 25.92+0.9% from the close

4 relationships · strength 4.2 · Primary, Intermediate, Minor degrees

25.92ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Intermediate · EWP · secondary ratio
25.79ProjectionWave 3 = 61.8% of wave 1 · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
25.76ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2, log scale) · Primary · EWP · secondary ratio
25.64ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.08 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 764.4K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $22.5M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: TWM · massive: TWM
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (20.16, Aug 14, 2026) price has moved +26.7%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 4 ↑, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse down · complete, next move up ↑

A five-wave decline (impulse) looks complete, so a correction up would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 71.27, Apr 9, 2025

Pattern Confidence69Medium

9 of 12 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−21.1% from close

20.16

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+1.7% from close

25.98

Correction ends near the end of wave 4

Nearest confluence zone+0.9% from close

25.64–25.92

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 44.60, Aug 1, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 9 met, 3 not met

Met

Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
One actionary wave (1, 3 or 5) is extended, most often wave 3 in stocks
Wave 5 exceeds the end of wave 3 (a failure is called a truncation)
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Wave 5 comes on lighter average volume than wave 3
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed