TIP

iShares TIPS Bond ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

105.54

+0.25 (+0.24%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveFlat complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciNo zoneNo confluence zone near price.

MomentumWeak3 months −2.3% (behind SPY by 5.2 points); 6 months −5.3%.

RegimeDowntrend−0.3% vs the 50-day average, −3.2% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 5% vs 4% over the year; 1-year drawdown −7.3%; beta 0.07.

TIP setup history1 resolved: 0 reached target first, average −1.00R

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

TIP · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 112.26 on Sep 17, 2025. 22 labelings tested, 15 broke a hard rule, 7 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 15 labelings were eliminated

9Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
3Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
2Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
1Expanding triangle: C ends beyond A's end, D beyond B's end, and E beyond C's end

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 105.54

No price band within 35% of the close has two or more independent Fibonacci relationships.

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The count has no unreached Fibonacci target beyond the current price. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.89M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $215.1M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: TIP · massive: TIP
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (112.26, Sep 17, 2025) price has moved −6.0%, the way the count expects.7 of 7 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat complete ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Flat up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave flat correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 106.04, Dec 19, 2024

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+6.4% from close

112.26

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move

None

No unreached Fibonacci target.

Nearest confluence zone

None

No zone within 35% of price.

Alternate count

Flat down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction down.

A-B from 111.51, Apr 4, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave C ends slightly beyond wave A (regular), substantially beyond (expanded), or short of it after an extended B (running)
Wave C measures 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A, depending on the flat type
The flat is a regular or expanded flat; running flats are a rare variation
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed