SPTL

State Street SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

24.45

+0.00 (+0.00%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse, wave 4 up (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 24.86–25.05 (5 relationships), +2.1% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −4.3% (behind SPY by 7.2 points); 6 months −7.5%.

RegimeDowntrend−0.9% vs the 50-day average, −5.3% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 11% vs 9% over the year; 1-year drawdown −14.6%; beta 0.22.

SPTL setup history3 resolved: 1 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SPTL · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 23.46 on Oct 7, 2026. 150 labelings tested, 108 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 108 labelings were eliminated

51Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
21Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
16Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
9Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
4Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 24.45

24.45close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

24.86 – 25.05+2.1% from the close

5 relationships · strength 6.7 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

25.05Swing78.6% retracement of the decline 2026-08-28 → 2026-10-07 · Minor · Basics · secondary ratio
25.03RetracementWave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3 · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
25.00RetracementWave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3 · Intermediate · EWF
24.87ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Intermediate · EWP · secondary ratio
24.86ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupWaiting for the reference level

Wave 4 pullback

Wave 4 is correcting wave 3. The scenario looks for it to end ahead of wave 5.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level+2.1% from close

24.86–25.05

Wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3, inside a confluence zone (5 relationships)

Invalidation+7.3% from close

26.23

wave 4 cannot enter wave 1 territory (hard rule)

Structural target−3.9% from close

23.49

Wave 5 = wave 1, measured from the entry

Reward : risk

1.1 : 1

Invalidation 5.1% from the reference level · 5.5 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 7% of 109 past cases, averaging −0.29R. Method

Waiting: enter only if wave 4 reaches the entry range without crossing the stop.
The trade is wave 5: late in the trend, usually on lighter volume than wave 3.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 10.06M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $386.7M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SPTL · massive: SPTL
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (23.46, Oct 7, 2026) price has moved +4.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Impulse down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2-3 from 27.70, Oct 21, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+7.3% from close

26.23

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 4+2.2% from close

25.00

Wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3

Nearest confluence zone+2.1% from close

24.86–25.05

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 27.70, Oct 21, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed