SPHY

State Street SPDR Portfolio High Yield Bond ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

22.45

−0.08 (−0.36%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal, wave 3 down (Pattern Confidence 50); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 22.07–22.21 (3 relationships), −1.4% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −3.8% (behind SPY by 6.6 points); 6 months −5.0%.

RegimeDowntrend−2.3% vs the 50-day average, −3.9% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 5% vs 4% over the year; 1-year drawdown −6.2%; beta 0.21.

SPHY setup history1 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SPHY · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 23.99 on Sep 23, 2025. 6 labelings tested, 0 broke a hard rule, 6 remain.

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 22.45

22.45close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

22.07 – 22.21−1.4% from the close

3 relationships · strength 3.6 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

22.21RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Minor · Viridia · secondary ratio
22.14ProjectionWave 3 = 100% of wave 1 · Intermediate · EWP
22.07ProjectionWave C = 161.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.19 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 5.36M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $167.6M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SPHY · massive: SPHY
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (23.99, Sep 23, 2025) price has moved −6.4%, the way the count expects.6 of 6 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 3 ↓, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 24.06, Sep 30, 2024

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+7.2% from close

24.06

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 3−1.4% from close

22.14

Wave 3 = 100% of wave 1

Nearest confluence zone−1.4% from close

22.07–22.21

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Flat down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction down.

A-B from 24.06, Sep 30, 2024

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 0 met, 0 not met

Met

None.

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed