SPCU

Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SPCX ETF

Cboe BZX · ETF

12.18

−0.51 (−4.02%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveUnresolvedZigzag, wave C down (Pattern Confidence 50).

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 9.41–9.46 (2 relationships), −22.5% from the close.

MomentumStrong3 months +25.3% (ahead of SPY by 22.5 points).

RegimeNot enough historyNeeds 200 sessions.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 105% vs 149% over the year; 1-year drawdown −75.4%; beta 5.26.

SPCU setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SPCU · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 18.02 on Oct 6, 2026. 6 labelings tested, 1 broke a hard rule, 5 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 1 labelings were eliminated

1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 12.18

12.18close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

9.41 – 9.46−22.5% from the close

2 relationships · strength 1.8 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

9.46ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
9.41ProjectionWave C = 78.6% of wave B · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The count has no unreached Fibonacci target beyond the current price. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 87 since Jun 15, 2026
Avg volume, 50 days: 2.02M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $20.4M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SPCU · massive: SPCU
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (18.02, Oct 6, 2026) price has moved −32.4%, the way the count expects.5 of 5 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Zigzag down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction down.

A-B from 37.35, Jun 16, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

1 of 2 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+206.7% from close

37.35

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C

None

No unreached Fibonacci target.

Nearest confluence zone−22.5% from close

9.41–9.46

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 37.35, Jun 16, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 1 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)

Not met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag wC ↓ (confidence 50).
Oct 15, 2026Count droppedZigzag complete ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag wC ↓.
Oct 15, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Oct 13, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 13.45.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 14.37.
Oct 7, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag complete ↓ (confidence 60).
Oct 7, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag complete ↓.
Oct 5, 2026Count invalidatedEnding Diagonal w5 ↑ was invalidated: price closed at 17, beyond its 16.84 level. Now Ending Diagonal w3 ↑.
Oct 5, 2026New leading countLeading Diagonal w3 ↑ entered the top three counts.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 17.43.
Oct 2, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w5 ↑ (confidence 67).
Oct 2, 2026Count droppedZigzag complete ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w5 ↑.