SPCQ

Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SPCX ETF

Cboe BZX · ETF

10.61

+0.33 (+3.21%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

Watch

Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveConstructiveFlat, wave C up (Pattern Confidence 50).

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 11.52–11.94 (3 relationships), +10.6% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −58.0% (behind SPY by 60.8 points).

RegimeNot enough historyNeeds 200 sessions.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 103% vs 152% over the year; 1-year drawdown −73.2%; beta -5.29.

SPCQ setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SPCQ · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 7.50 on Oct 6, 2026. 6 labelings tested, 4 broke a hard rule, 2 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 4 labelings were eliminated

3Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
1Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 10.61

10.61close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

11.52 – 11.94+10.6% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.6 · Minor degree

11.94ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
11.83ProjectionWave D = 61.8% of wave B · Minor · Essentials
11.52Prior 4thCorrection ends near the end of wave 4 · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The rules set no stop for the wave in progress, so there is no defined risk. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 87 since Jun 15, 2026
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.88M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $22.1M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SPCQ · massive: SPCQ
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (7.50, Oct 6, 2026) price has moved +41.5%, the way the count expects.2 of 2 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.

Preferred count

Flat up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction up.

A-B from 7.98, Jun 16, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation

None yet

The rules set no level for this state.

Target, wave C+192.4% from close

31.02

Wave C = 100% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone+10.6% from close

11.52–11.94

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

All 2 rule-valid counts at this degree tell the same story, starting from different points. There is no competing reading yet.

Why this count is preferred · 0 met, 0 not met

Met

None.

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Flat wC ↑ (confidence 50).
Oct 15, 2026Count droppedTriangle wE ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Flat wC ↑.
Oct 15, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 13, 2026New leading countLeading Diagonal w4 ↑ entered the top three counts.
Oct 13, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 9.51.
Oct 8, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Triangle wE ↑ (confidence 60).
Oct 8, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Triangle wE ↑.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 9.27.
Oct 2, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w3 ↓ (confidence 60).
Oct 2, 2026Count droppedTriangle wE ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w3 ↓.
Sep 28, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Triangle wE ↑ (confidence 60).
Sep 28, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Triangle wE ↑.

Last swing high

31.50

Aug 3, 2026

Last swing low

7.50

Oct 6, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.