SPAL

GraniteShares 2x Long SpaceX Daily ETF

Cboe BZX · ETF

15.73

−0.57 (−3.50%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

Watch

Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveUnresolvedZigzag, wave C down (Pattern Confidence 50).

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 14.33–14.5 (2 relationships), −8.4% from the close.

MomentumStrong3 months +28.5% (ahead of SPY by 25.7 points).

RegimeNot enough historyNeeds 200 sessions.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 104% vs 148% over the year; 1-year drawdown −74.9%; beta 5.17.

SPAL setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SPAL · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 23.10 on Oct 6, 2026. 6 labelings tested, 1 broke a hard rule, 5 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 1 labelings were eliminated

1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 15.73

15.73close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

14.33 – 14.50−8.4% from the close

2 relationships · strength 3 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

14.50RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
14.33ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave B · Intermediate · EWF

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The count has no unreached Fibonacci target beyond the current price. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 87 since Jun 15, 2026
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.26M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $18.5M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SPAL · massive: SPAL
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (23.10, Oct 6, 2026) price has moved −31.9%, the way the count expects.5 of 5 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Zigzag down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction down.

A-B from 46.57, Jun 16, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

1 of 2 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+196.1% from close

46.57

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C

None

No unreached Fibonacci target.

Nearest confluence zone−8.4% from close

14.33–14.50

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 46.57, Jun 16, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 1 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)

Not met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag wC ↓ (confidence 50).
Oct 15, 2026Count droppedZigzag complete ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag wC ↓.
Oct 15, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 18.49.
Oct 7, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag complete ↓ (confidence 70).
Oct 7, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag complete ↓.
Oct 7, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 20.25.
Oct 5, 2026Count invalidatedEnding Diagonal w5 ↑ was invalidated: price closed at 21.72, beyond its 21.68 level. Now Ending Diagonal w3 ↑.
Oct 5, 2026New leading countLeading Diagonal w3 ↑ entered the top three counts.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 22.12.
Oct 2, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w5 ↑ (confidence 67).
Oct 2, 2026Count droppedZigzag complete ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w5 ↑.