SDVY

First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

41.52

−0.14 (−0.34%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveZigzag, wave C up (Pattern Confidence 57); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 43.27–43.41 (2 relationships), +4.4% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −3.6% (behind SPY by 6.5 points); 6 months −1.7%.

RegimeMixed−2.5% vs the 50-day average, −0.7% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 12% vs 14% over the year; 1-year drawdown −9.7%; beta 0.73.

SDVY setup history4 resolved: 1 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SDVY · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 40.29 on Oct 1, 2026. 106 labelings tested, 73 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 73 labelings were eliminated

39Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
12Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
6Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
3Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
3Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 41.52

41.52close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

43.27 – 43.41+4.4% from the close

2 relationships · strength 3 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

43.41RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
43.27ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave B · Intermediate · EWF

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

The intermediate-degree scenario was held back

Its levels didn't pass Viridia's checks: invalidation over 8 ATR away. It's listed for review instead of shown.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 907.3K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $41.9M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SDVY · massive: SDVY
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (40.29, Oct 1, 2026) price has moved +3.0%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: flat wave C ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Zigzag up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction up.

A-B from 35.03, Aug 1, 2025

Pattern Confidence57Low

2 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−15.6% from close

35.03

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C+21.3% from close

50.38

Wave C = 100% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone+4.4% from close

43.27–43.41

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal up · wave 5 ↑

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2-3-4 from 36.41, Nov 20, 2025

Pattern Confidence50Low

1 of 2 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed