SDOW

UltraPro Short Dow30

NYSE Arca · ETF

24.63

+0.30 (+1.23%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveImpulse, wave 5 down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 23.24–23.55 (3 relationships), −5.0% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −1.2% (behind SPY by 4.0 points); 6 months −14.7%.

RegimeMixed+2.4% vs the 50-day average, −10.7% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 27% vs 38% over the year; 1-year drawdown −43.3%; beta -2.46.

SDOW setup history3 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

SDOW · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 26.66 on Oct 1, 2026. 76 labelings tested, 55 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 55 labelings were eliminated

33Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
8Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
4Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
2Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
2Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 24.63

24.63close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

23.24 – 23.55−5.0% from the close

3 relationships · strength 4 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

23.55RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
23.47ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
23.24ProjectionWave E = 61.8% of wave D · Intermediate · EWF

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Wave 5 under way

Wave 5 is under way: the last leg of the trend, with the invalidation where the count breaks.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

24.63

Latest close

Invalidation+11.8% from close

27.55

wave 4 cannot enter wave 1 territory (hard rule)

Structural target−25.8% from close

18.27

Wave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3, log scale)

Reward : risk

2.2 : 1

Invalidation 11.8% from the reference level · 3.8 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 14% of 43 past cases, averaging −0.33R. Method

Late in the trend: wave 5 usually comes on lighter volume than wave 3, and the sources advise reducing risk here rather than chasing.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 3.79M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $104.4M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: SDOW · massive: SDOW
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (26.66, Oct 1, 2026) price has moved −7.6%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 4 ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Impulse down · wave 5 ↓

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2-3-4 from 43.92, Aug 1, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

6 of 8 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+11.8% from close

27.55

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 5−25.8% from close

18.27

Wave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3, log scale)

Nearest confluence zone−5.0% from close

23.24–23.55

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 38.37, Mar 30, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 6 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed