RARE

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

14.54

−0.63 (−4.15%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedZigzag complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 60); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 16.12–16.45 (3 relationships), +12.0% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −49.0% (behind SPY by 51.9 points); 6 months −41.4%.

RegimeDowntrend−23.6% vs the 50-day average, −37.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 51% vs 82% over the year; 1-year drawdown −64.8%; beta 1.27.

RARE setup history6 resolved: 2 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

RARE · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 12.73 on Sep 16, 2026. 124 labelings tested, 93 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 93 labelings were eliminated

51Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
12Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
11Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
8Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
2Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 14.54

14.54close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

16.12 – 16.45+12.0% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.8 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

16.45RetracementWave 4 retraces 23.6% of wave 3 · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
16.18ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
16.12Prior 4thCorrection ends near the end of wave 4 · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 60 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

14.54

Latest close

Invalidation−12.4% from close

12.73

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target+88.9% from close

27.46

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Reward : risk

7.1 : 1

Invalidation 12.4% from the reference level · 2.4 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 29% of 1,608 past cases, averaging +0.08R. Method

Close call: the alternate count scores within a few points of the preferred one.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 4.64M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $66.3M
SEC CIK: 0001515673
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: RARE · massive: RARE
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (12.73, Sep 16, 2026) price has moved +14.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↓, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 36.57, Jul 7, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−12.4% from close

12.73

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+88.9% from close

27.46

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+12.0% from close

16.12–16.45

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 36.57, Jul 7, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed