PUBM

PubMatic, Inc. Class A

NASDAQ · Common stock

17.46

+0.45 (+2.65%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveTriangle complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 17.63–17.99 (5 relationships), +2.0% from the close.

MomentumStrong3 months +38.0% (ahead of SPY by 35.1 points); 6 months +84.4%.

RegimeUptrend+0.2% vs the 50-day average, +48.3% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 49% vs 72% over the year; 1-year drawdown −42.8%; beta 1.32.

PUBM setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

PUBM · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 19.48 on Oct 2, 2026. 150 labelings tested, 119 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 119 labelings were eliminated

69Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
16Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
8Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
6Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 17.46

17.46close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

17.63 – 17.99+2.0% from the close

5 relationships · strength 3.4 · Minor degree

17.99RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
17.98Swing50% retracement of the decline 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-16 · Minor · Basics · secondary ratio
17.96ProjectionWave D = 61.8% of wave B · Minor · Essentials
17.86ProjectionWave 5 = 61.8% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
17.63Swing38.2% retracement of the decline 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-16 · Minor · Basics

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

17.46

Latest close

Invalidation+11.6% from close

19.48

End of wave E: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target−16.9% from close

14.51

Thrust after the triangle ≈ width of wave A

Reward : risk

1.5 : 1

Invalidation 11.6% from the reference level · 2.7 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 18% of 2,015 past cases, averaging −0.29R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.22R, then −0.34R), so treat it with caution. Method

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 20, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 694.6K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $13.3M
SEC CIK: 0001422930
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: PUBM · massive: PUBM
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (19.48, Oct 2, 2026) price has moved −10.4%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Triangle up · complete, next move down ↓

A sideways triangle looks complete, so a thrust down would normally follow.

A-B-C-D-E from 7.46, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+11.6% from close

19.48

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−16.9% from close

14.51

Thrust after the triangle ≈ width of wave A

Nearest confluence zone+2.0% from close

17.63–17.99

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal up · wave 4 ↓

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 6.15, Feb 17, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 0 not met

Met

Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 20, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 20, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 17.81.
Oct 16, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Triangle complete ↓ (confidence 67).
Oct 16, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 16, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Triangle complete ↓.
Oct 16, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (down) and weekly (up) counts no longer agree.
Oct 16, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Oct 16, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 15.9.
Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 17.05.
Oct 6, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 17.5.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 17.88.
Oct 1, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 19.97.

Last swing high

19.48

Oct 2, 2026

Last swing low

15.64

Aug 26, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.