PHAT

Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

7.31

+0.30 (+4.28%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveZigzag complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 80); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 7.52–7.72 (3 relationships), +4.2% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −37.5% (behind SPY by 40.4 points); 6 months −43.2%.

RegimeDowntrend−9.8% vs the 50-day average, −32.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 61% vs 64% over the year; 1-year drawdown −62.9%; beta 0.58.

PHAT setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

PHAT · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 6.52 on Oct 6, 2026. 362 labelings tested, 205 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 205 labelings were eliminated

63Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
50Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
39Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
19Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
16Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
12Wave 4 does not enter the price territory of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 7.31

7.31close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

7.52 – 7.72+4.2% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.2 · Minor degree

7.72Prior 4thCorrection ends near the end of wave 4 · Minor · Essentials
7.52ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
7.52ProjectionWave C = 78.6% of wave B · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 80 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

7.31

Latest close

Invalidation−10.8% from close

6.52

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target+88.9% from close

13.81

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Reward : risk

8.2 : 1

Invalidation 10.8% from the reference level · 1.9 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 29% of 1,608 past cases, averaging +0.08R. Method

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 20, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.25M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $9.1M
SEC CIK: 0001783183
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: PHAT · massive: PHAT
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (6.52, Oct 6, 2026) price has moved +12.1%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 3 ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 18.31, Dec 23, 2025

Pattern Confidence80High

6 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−10.8% from close

6.52

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+88.9% from close

13.81

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+4.2% from close

7.52–7.72

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · complete, next move up ↑

A five-wave decline (ending diagonal) looks complete, so a correction up would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 18.31, Dec 23, 2025

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 6 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 20, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 7.62.
Oct 15, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag complete ↑ (confidence 80).
Oct 15, 2026Count droppedImpulse w5 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag complete ↑.
Oct 15, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (up) and weekly (down) counts no longer agree.
Oct 15, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 7.85.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 7.37.
Oct 7, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.5.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.51.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.61.
Oct 1, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.86.

Last swing high

9.75

Aug 18, 2026

Last swing low

6.52

Oct 6, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.