PEN

Penumbra, Inc.

NYSE · Common stock

320.86

−0.34 (−0.11%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal, wave 5 up (Pattern Confidence 60); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 323.91–325.97 (4 relationships), +1.3% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +0.9% (behind SPY by 2.0 points); 6 months −3.4%.

RegimeDowntrend−0.1% vs the 50-day average, −1.9% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 4% vs 27% over the year; 1-year drawdown −12.2%; beta 0.02.

PEN setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

PEN · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 290.00 on Jan 13, 2026. 66 labelings tested, 51 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 51 labelings were eliminated

24Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
5Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
4Expanding triangle: C ends beyond A's end, D beyond B's end, and E beyond C's end
3Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
3Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 320.86

320.86close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

323.91 – 325.97+1.3% from the close

4 relationships · strength 3.2 · Minor degree

325.97ProjectionWave C = 78.6% of wave B · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
324.85ProjectionWave 3 = 61.8% of wave 1 · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
324.57RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
323.91ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave B · Minor · EWF

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The count's stop or target lies on the wrong side of the entry. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 324.1K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $110.5M
SEC CIK: 0001321732
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: PEN · massive: PEN
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (290.00, Jan 13, 2026) price has moved +10.6%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: impulse wave 4 ↓, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal up · wave 5 ↑

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2-3-4 from 186.97, Oct 1, 2024

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+22.7% from close

393.77

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 5+17.0% from close

375.32

Wave 5 = 61.8% of waves 1–3

Nearest confluence zone+1.3% from close

323.91–325.97

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal up · wave 3 ↑

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 221.26, Nov 3, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 1 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 4 almost always ends in the price territory of wave 1

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed