PDBA

Invesco Agriculture Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

37.63

−0.03 (−0.08%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveFlat complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 80); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 36.55–36.83 (3 relationships), −2.5% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −0.2% (behind SPY by 3.1 points); 6 months +3.9%.

RegimeMixed−1.1% vs the 50-day average, +3.3% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 9% vs 11% over the year; 1-year drawdown −8.6%; beta 0.05.

PDBA setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

PDBA · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 39.41 on Sep 1, 2026. 86 labelings tested, 66 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 66 labelings were eliminated

45Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
7Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
5Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
3Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.1.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.2.0+setup-1.0.1 (computed on load), bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 37.63

37.63close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

36.55 – 36.83−2.5% from the close

3 relationships · strength 4.6 · Intermediate degree

36.83ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials
36.81ProjectionWave D = 61.8% of wave B · Intermediate · Essentials
36.55Swing50% retracement of the rise 2026-06-29 → 2026-09-01 · Intermediate · Basics · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.74 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.1.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.2.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 219.7K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $3.1M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: PDBA · massive: PDBA
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (39.41, Sep 1, 2026) price has moved −4.5%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Flat up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave flat correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 34.40, Dec 27, 2024

Pattern Confidence80High

6 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+4.7% from close

39.41

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−3.5% from close

36.31

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone−2.5% from close

36.55–36.83

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Triangle up · wave D ↓

Price is in wave D of a sideways triangle.

A-B-C from 34.40, Dec 27, 2024

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 6 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave C ends slightly beyond wave A (regular), substantially beyond (expanded), or short of it after an extended B (running)
Wave C measures 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A, depending on the flat type
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or alternate triangle legs at 61.8%, or 161.8% in expanding triangles), the more reliable kind of relationship
The flat is a regular or expanded flat; running flats are a rare variation
In an expanded flat, wave B is about 123.6% or 138.2% of wave A
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 35.93.
Oct 13, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 12, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 8, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 35.93.
Oct 7, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 39.48.
Oct 5, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 39.48.
Sep 29, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Sep 28, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 35.93.

Last swing high

39.41

Sep 1, 2026

Last swing low

33.69

Jun 29, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.1.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.2.0+setup-1.0.1.