ONEQ

Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

103.01

−2.23 (−2.12%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedImpulse complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 63); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 101.18–101.75 (2 relationships), −1.5% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +2.4% (behind SPY by 0.4 points); 6 months +7.0%.

RegimeMixed−1.8% vs the 50-day average, +5.0% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 17% vs 18% over the year; 1-year drawdown −13.1%; beta 1.38.

ONEQ setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

ONEQ · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 109.24 on Oct 6, 2026. 168 labelings tested, 114 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 114 labelings were eliminated

45Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
18Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
16Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
12Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
8Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
5Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 103.01

103.01close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

101.18 – 101.75−1.5% from the close

2 relationships · strength 1.6 · Minor degree

101.75RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Minor · Viridia · secondary ratio
101.18ProjectionWave E = 61.8% of wave D · Minor · EWF

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Five waves complete

Five waves look complete, so a correction in the other direction would normally follow.

Pattern Confidence 63 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

103.01

Latest close

Invalidation+6.0% from close

109.24

End of wave 5: beyond it wave 5 is still extending

Structural target−6.6% from close

96.20

End of wave 4: corrections tend to end near it

Reward : risk

1.1 : 1

Invalidation 6.0% from the reference level · 4.5 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 20% of 480 past cases, averaging −0.18R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.20R, then −0.16R), so treat it with caution. Method

Counter-trend trade against the five-wave move just finished.
Close call: the alternate count scores within a few points of the preferred one.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 231.7K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $30.2M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: ONEQ · massive: ONEQ
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (109.24, Oct 6, 2026) price has moved −5.7%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 3 ↑, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 3 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Impulse up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (impulse) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 58.12, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence63Medium

8 of 12 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+6.0% from close

109.24

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−6.6% from close

96.20

Correction ends near the end of wave 4

Nearest confluence zone−1.5% from close

101.18–101.75

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 81.45, Mar 30, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 8 met, 4 not met

Met

Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
One actionary wave (1, 3 or 5) is extended, most often wave 3 in stocks
Wave 5 exceeds the end of wave 3 (a failure is called a truncation)
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Wave 5 comes on lighter average volume than wave 3
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 16, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 16, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 98.68.
Oct 15, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Impulse complete ↓ (confidence 63).
Oct 15, 2026Structure changedIntermediate structure changed from lower highs and lows to expanding.
Oct 15, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Impulse complete ↓.
Oct 15, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (down) and weekly (up) counts no longer agree.
Oct 15, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 101.47.
Oct 12, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 106.39.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 104.91.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 112.33.
Sep 28, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 100.67.

Last swing high

109.24

Oct 6, 2026

Last swing low

96.20

Jul 29, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.