OBX

Obsidian Therapeutics, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

13.25

+1.31 (+10.97%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveDefensiveEnding diagonal, wave 5 down (Pattern Confidence 60).

FibonacciNo zoneNo confluence zone near price.

MomentumNot enough historyNeeds 3 months of sessions.

RegimeNot enough historyNeeds 200 sessions.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 95% vs 131% over the year; 1-year drawdown −66.4%.

OBX setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

OBX · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest minor swing high, 15.38 on Sep 29, 2026. 22 labelings tested, 9 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 9 labelings were eliminated

3Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
2Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
1Wave 4 does not enter the price territory of wave 1
1Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
1Expanding triangle: C ends beyond A's end, D beyond B's end, and E beyond C's end
1Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 13.25

No price band within 35% of the close has two or more independent Fibonacci relationships.

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Minor degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at minor degree right now

The count's stop or target lies on the wrong side of the entry. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 55 since Aug 4, 2026
Avg volume, 50 days: 441.5K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $5.1M
SEC CIK: 0002130606
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: OBX · massive: OBX
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (15.38, Sep 29, 2026) price has moved −13.8%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal down · wave 5 ↓

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2-3-4 from 49.97, Aug 4, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−60.7% from close

5.21

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 5−26.8% from close

9.69

Wave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3, log scale)

Nearest confluence zone

None

No zone within 35% of price.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction down.

A-B from 49.97, Aug 4, 2026

Pattern Confidence50Low

1 of 2 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 1 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 4 almost always ends in the price territory of wave 1

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 8, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w5 ↓ (confidence 60).
Oct 8, 2026Count droppedFlat wC ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w5 ↓.
Sep 29, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Flat wC ↑ (confidence 60).
Sep 29, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Flat wC ↑.

Last swing high

49.97

Aug 4, 2026

Last swing low

—

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.