NMR

Nomura Holdings Inc ADR American Depositary Shares

NYSE · Common stock

9.13

+0.01 (+0.11%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveImpulse complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 65); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 8.73–8.83 (7 relationships), −3.9% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −7.0% (behind SPY by 9.9 points); 6 months +10.0%.

RegimeMixed−8.1% vs the 50-day average, +1.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 20% vs 29% over the year; 1-year drawdown −22.4%; beta 1.19.

NMR setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

NMR · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 10.94 on Sep 11, 2026. 206 labelings tested, 147 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 147 labelings were eliminated

48Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
19Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
19Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
18Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
11Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
6Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 9.13

9.13close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

8.73 – 8.83−3.9% from the close

7 relationships · strength 12.2 · Primary, Intermediate, Minor degrees

8.83RetracementCorrection retraces 50% of waves 1–5 · Intermediate · Basics · secondary ratio
8.81ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Primary · Essentials
8.80ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Primary · EWP · secondary ratio
8.75ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
8.74ProjectionWave 3 = 61.8% of wave 1 · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
8.73ProjectionWave D = 61.8% of wave C · Primary · EWF
8.73ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.01 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 694.2K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $6.8M
SEC CIK: 0001163653
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: NMR · massive: NMR
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (10.94, Sep 11, 2026) price has moved −16.5%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (impulse) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 6.71, Oct 10, 2025

Pattern Confidence65Medium

9 of 13 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+19.8% from close

10.94

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−8.8% from close

8.33

Correction retraces 61.8% of waves 1–5

Nearest confluence zone−3.9% from close

8.73–8.83

7 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 6.71, Oct 10, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 9 met, 4 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
One actionary wave (1, 3 or 5) is extended, most often wave 3 in stocks
Wave 5 exceeds the end of wave 3 (a failure is called a truncation)
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Wave 5 comes on lighter average volume than wave 3
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

When wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend toward equality
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed