NGG

National Grid Transco, PLC National Grid PLC (NEW) American Depositary Shares

NYSE · Common stock

81.22

+2.15 (+2.72%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 71); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 81.77–82.34 (4 relationships), +1.0% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −1.5% (behind SPY by 4.3 points); 6 months −6.6%.

RegimeMixed+4.0% vs the 50-day average, −2.4% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 17% vs 22% over the year; 1-year drawdown −20.2%; beta 0.33.

NGG setup history6 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

NGG · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 74.03 on Sep 29, 2026. 266 labelings tested, 187 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 187 labelings were eliminated

57Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
35Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
30Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
24Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
14Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
12Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 81.22

81.22close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

81.77 – 82.34+1.0% from the close

4 relationships · strength 6.2 · Primary, Intermediate, Minor degrees

82.34Prior 4thWave 4 near the prior fourth wave of lesser degree (2026-08-18) · Primary · Essentials
82.34RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Minor · Viridia · secondary ratio
81.90RetracementCorrection retraces 38.2% of waves 1–5 · Intermediate · Basics
81.77ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.53 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 880.9K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $72.5M
SEC CIK: 0001004315
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: NGG · massive: NGG
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (74.03, Sep 29, 2026) price has moved +9.7%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: flat wave C ↓, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 1 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal down · complete, next move up ↑

A five-wave decline (ending diagonal) looks complete, so a correction up would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 94.64, Feb 27, 2026

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−8.9% from close

74.03

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+0.8% from close

81.90

Correction retraces 38.2% of waves 1–5

Nearest confluence zone+1.0% from close

81.77–82.34

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 89.74, May 1, 2026

Pattern Confidence70High

5 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 3 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 4 almost always ends in the price territory of wave 1
Wave 5 almost always ends at least slightly beyond the end of wave 3
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed