NBTB

NBT Bancorp Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

51.58

+0.90 (+1.78%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse, wave 5 up (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 52.2–52.51 (4 relationships), +1.5% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −0.3% (behind SPY by 3.2 points); 6 months +14.4%.

RegimeUptrend+0.3% vs the 50-day average, +9.0% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 16% vs 22% over the year; 1-year drawdown −12.9%; beta 0.39.

NBTB setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

NBTB · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 49.30 on Oct 14, 2026. 104 labelings tested, 75 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 75 labelings were eliminated

36Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
14Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
12Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
4Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
4Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
3Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 51.58

51.58close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

52.20 – 52.51+1.5% from the close

4 relationships · strength 4.8 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

52.51ProjectionWave D = 61.8% of wave C · Intermediate · EWF
52.42ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
52.23ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
52.20RetracementCorrection retraces 61.8% of waves 1–5 · Minor · Basics

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Wave 5 under way

Wave 5 is under way: the last leg of the trend, with the invalidation where the count breaks.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

51.58

Latest close

Invalidation−9.0% from close

46.92

wave 4 cannot enter wave 1 territory (hard rule)

Structural target+10.6% from close

57.03

Wave 5 = 100% of wave 1

Reward : risk

1.2 : 1

Invalidation 9.0% from the reference level · 5.2 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 28% of 141 past cases, averaging +0.14R. It made money in both halves of the replay (+0.03R, then +0.23R). Method

Late in the trend: wave 5 usually comes on lighter volume than wave 3, and the sources advise reducing risk here rather than chasing.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 20, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 305.8K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $16.4M
SEC CIK: 0000790359
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: NBTB · massive: NBTB
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (49.30, Oct 14, 2026) price has moved +4.6%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: flat wave C ↑, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · wave 5 ↑

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave advance (impulse).

1-2-3-4 from 39.20, Oct 10, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

6 of 8 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−9.0% from close

46.92

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 5+10.6% from close

57.03

Wave 5 = 100% of wave 1

Nearest confluence zone+1.5% from close

52.20–52.51

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 54.50, Jul 29, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 6 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 20, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 20, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Impulse w5 ↑ (confidence 67).
Oct 20, 2026Structure changedIntermediate structure changed from contracting to lower highs and lows.
Oct 20, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Impulse w5 ↑.
Oct 20, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily and weekly counts now both point up.
Oct 20, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 20, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 53.26.
Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 51.22.
Oct 12, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 52.58.
Oct 9, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 47.94.
Oct 7, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 47.94.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 52.58.

Last swing high

52.58

Sep 15, 2026

Last swing low

49.30

Oct 14, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.