MDY

State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust

NYSE Arca · ETF

659.87

−6.24 (−0.94%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 71); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 649.37–651.73 (2 relationships), −1.4% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −3.4% (behind SPY by 6.3 points); 6 months −0.8%.

RegimeMixed−3.2% vs the 50-day average, −0.6% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 12% vs 15% over the year; 1-year drawdown −9.0%; beta 0.95.

MDY setup history4 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

MDY · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 717.35 on Aug 14, 2026. 232 labelings tested, 169 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 169 labelings were eliminated

78Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
30Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
17Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
10Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
9Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
8Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 659.87

659.87close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

649.37 – 651.73−1.4% from the close

2 relationships · strength 4 · Intermediate degree

651.73ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials
649.37Prior 4thCorrection ends near the end of wave 4 · Intermediate · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.18 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 609.4K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $492.4M
SEC CIK: 0000936958
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: MDY · massive: MDY
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (717.35, Aug 14, 2026) price has moved −8.0%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↓, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 1 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (ending diagonal) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 458.82, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+8.7% from close

717.35

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−1.6% from close

649.37

Correction ends near the end of wave 4

Nearest confluence zone−1.4% from close

649.37–651.73

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 458.82, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence70High

5 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 3 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 4 almost always ends in the price territory of wave 1
Wave 5 almost always ends at least slightly beyond the end of wave 3
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed