MBX

MBX Biosciences, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

53.50

+1.02 (+1.94%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveImpulse, wave 4 down (Pattern Confidence 78); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 55.96–57.17 (5 relationships), +5.7% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −8.2% (behind SPY by 11.1 points); 6 months +61.0%.

RegimeMixed−11.1% vs the 50-day average, +19.4% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 60% vs 79% over the year; 1-year drawdown −37.6%; beta 1.06.

MBX setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

MBX · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 72.64 on Aug 5, 2026. 292 labelings tested, 162 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 162 labelings were eliminated

81Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
40Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
15Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
13Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
7Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave 4 does not enter the price territory of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 53.50

53.50close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

55.96 – 57.17+5.7% from the close

5 relationships · strength 3.7 · Minor degree

57.17RetracementCorrection retraces 38.2% of waves 1–5 · Minor · Basics
56.30RetracementWave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
56.01ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2, log scale) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
55.97RetracementWave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF
55.96Swing61.8% retracement of the decline 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-14 · Minor · Basics

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.34 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 517.6K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $31.5M
SEC CIK: 0001776111
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: MBX · massive: MBX
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (72.64, Aug 5, 2026) price has moved −26.3%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: impulse wave 4 ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · wave 4 ↓

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave advance (impulse).

1-2-3 from 4.81, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence78High

5 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−70.2% from close

15.94

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 4−23.1% from close

41.14

Wave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3

Nearest confluence zone+5.7% from close

55.96–57.17

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (ending diagonal) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 4.81, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 5 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed