MBIN

Merchants Bancorp

NASDAQ · Common stock

48.42

+0.81 (+1.70%)

Close, Oct 20, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse, wave 5 up (Pattern Confidence 75); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 45.19–45.62 (2 relationships), −6.2% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +0.6% (behind SPY by 2.3 points); 6 months −1.9%.

RegimeMixed−6.6% vs the 50-day average, +3.0% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 22% vs 34% over the year; 1-year drawdown −14.6%; beta 0.49.

MBIN setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

MBIN · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 46.10 on Jul 23, 2026. 174 labelings tested, 125 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 125 labelings were eliminated

60Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
15Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
14Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
12Expanding triangle: C ends beyond A's end, D beyond B's end, and E beyond C's end
7Wave 4 does not enter the price territory of wave 1
6Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 20, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 48.42

48.42close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

45.19 – 45.62−6.2% from the close

2 relationships · strength 2 · Minor degree

45.62ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials
45.19ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.71 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 20, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 188.2K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $7.9M
SEC CIK: 0001629019
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: MBIN · massive: MBIN
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 21, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 20, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (46.10, Jul 23, 2026) price has moved +5.0%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: flat wave C ↑, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · wave 5 ↑

Price is in wave 5 of a five-wave advance (impulse).

1-2-3-4 from 28.75, Aug 1, 2025

Pattern Confidence75High

7 of 8 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−30.5% from close

33.64

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 5+21.6% from close

58.86

Wave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3)

Nearest confluence zone−6.2% from close

45.19–45.62

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction up.

A-B from 40.08, Mar 9, 2026

Pattern Confidence57Low

2 of 3 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 7 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed