LQDT

Liquidity Services, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

43.86

−0.23 (−0.52%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveEnding diagonal complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 71); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 45.67–45.83 (4 relationships), +4.3% from the close.

MomentumStrong3 months +13.1% (ahead of SPY by 10.3 points); 6 months +29.0%.

RegimeUptrend+3.0% vs the 50-day average, +20.8% vs the 200-day.

RiskNear a key level20-day volatility 23% vs 35% over the year; 1-year drawdown −15.4%; beta 0.66; price within 3% of the count's reassess level.

LQDT setup history

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

LQDT · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 45.00 on Oct 2, 2026. 218 labelings tested, 157 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 157 labelings were eliminated

75Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
27Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
14Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
13Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
10Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
8Wave 4 does not enter the price territory of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 43.86

43.86close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

45.67 – 45.83+4.3% from the close

4 relationships · strength 3.2 · Minor degree

45.83ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Minor · Essentials
45.81ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials
45.69ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
45.67ProjectionWave 5 = 61.8% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Five waves complete

Five waves look complete, so a correction in the other direction would normally follow.

Pattern Confidence 71 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

43.86

Latest close

Invalidation+2.6% from close

45.00

End of wave 5: beyond it wave 5 is still extending

Structural target−15.1% from close

37.24

End of wave 4: corrections tend to end near it

Reward : risk

5.8 : 1

Invalidation 2.6% from the reference level · 1.0 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 20% of 480 past cases, averaging −0.18R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.20R, then −0.16R), so treat it with caution. Method

Counter-trend trade against the five-wave move just finished.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 238.5K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $11.0M
SEC CIK: 0001235468
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: LQDT · massive: LQDT
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Not replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (45.00, Oct 2, 2026) price has moved −2.5%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Ending diagonal up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (ending diagonal) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 21.67, Nov 6, 2025

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+2.6% from close

45.00

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−15.1% from close

37.24

Correction ends near the end of wave 4

Nearest confluence zone+4.3% from close

45.67–45.83

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 21.67, Nov 6, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 3 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 4 almost always ends in the price territory of wave 1
Wave 5 almost always ends at least slightly beyond the end of wave 3
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 13, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 45.7.
Oct 8, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 7, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal complete ↓ (confidence 71).
Oct 7, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal complete ↓.
Oct 7, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (down) and weekly (up) counts no longer agree.
Oct 7, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Oct 6, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 6, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 39.44.
Oct 1, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 45.54.

Last swing high

45.00

Oct 2, 2026

Last swing low

38.49

Sep 1, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.