GTO

Invesco Total Return Bond ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

45.02

−0.05 (−0.10%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

Watch

Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveDefensiveZigzag, wave C down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 45.45–45.57 (5 relationships), +1.1% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −2.9% (behind SPY by 5.7 points); 6 months −5.0%.

RegimeDowntrend−1.1% vs the 50-day average, −3.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 5% vs 4% over the year; 1-year drawdown −7.2%; beta 0.14.

GTO setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

GTO · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 48.01 on Sep 17, 2025. 6 labelings tested, 1 broke a hard rule, 5 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 1 labelings were eliminated

1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 45.02

45.02close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

45.45 – 45.57+1.1% from the close

5 relationships · strength 3.7 · Minor degree

45.57RetracementWave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF
45.57ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
45.52ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
45.48ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
45.45Swing38.2% retracement of the decline 2026-06-17 → 2026-10-01 · Minor · Basics

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.55 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 319.8K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $19.8M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: GTO · massive: GTO
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (48.01, Sep 17, 2025) price has moved −6.2%, the way the count expects.5 of 5 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Zigzag down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction down.

A-B from 48.49, Oct 1, 2024

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+7.7% from close

48.49

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C−4.2% from close

43.11

Wave C = 161.8% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone+1.1% from close

45.45–45.57

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Impulse down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2 from 48.49, Oct 1, 2024

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed