FTCB

First Trust Core Investment Grade ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

19.98

+0.02 (+0.10%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveTriangle, wave C down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 19.29–19.43 (2 relationships), −3.1% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −3.6% (behind SPY by 6.4 points); 6 months −5.6%.

RegimeDowntrend−1.2% vs the 50-day average, −3.9% vs the 200-day.

RiskElevated20-day volatility 7% vs 5% over the year; 1-year drawdown −8.8%; beta 0.14.

FTCB setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

FTCB · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest primary swing high, 21.87 on Sep 8, 2025. 6 labelings tested, 1 broke a hard rule, 5 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 1 labelings were eliminated

1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 19.98

19.98close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

19.29 – 19.43−3.1% from the close

2 relationships · strength 2.8 · Primary, Minor degrees

19.43ProjectionWave C = 78.6% of wave B · Primary · EWF · secondary ratio
19.29ProjectionWave C = 161.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Primary degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at primary degree right now

A triangle moves sideways; the setup comes with the thrust once the triangle completes. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 877.1K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $24.8M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: FTCB · massive: FTCB
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (21.87, Sep 8, 2025) price has moved −8.6%, the way the count expects.5 of 5 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: triangle wave C ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Triangle down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a sideways triangle.

A-B from 22.33, Jan 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−6.1% from close

18.76

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C−2.8% from close

19.43

Wave C = 78.6% of wave B

Nearest confluence zone−3.1% from close

19.29–19.43

2 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 22.33, Jan 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 0 not met

Met

In a contracting triangle each leg is roughly 61.8% to 85.4% of the one before
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed