FREL

Fidelity MSCI Real Estate Index ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

27.84

+0.11 (+0.38%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal, wave 3 up (Pattern Confidence 60); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 28.07–28.26 (3 relationships), +1.2% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −7.9% (behind SPY by 10.7 points); 6 months −5.2%.

RegimeDowntrend−2.6% vs the 50-day average, −2.9% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 13% vs 14% over the year; 1-year drawdown −12.3%; beta 0.31.

FREL setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

FREL · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 26.72 on Oct 8, 2026. 80 labelings tested, 61 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 61 labelings were eliminated

39Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
8Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
5Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 27.84

27.84close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

28.07 – 28.26+1.2% from the close

3 relationships · strength 4.6 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

28.26RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Intermediate · Viridia
28.23ProjectionWave E = 61.8% of wave C · Intermediate · Essentials
28.07ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Wave 3 under way

Wave 3 is under way. It is usually the longest and strongest wave, and the count is wrong only if price crosses the invalidation level.

Pattern Confidence 60 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

27.84

Latest close

Invalidation−5.3% from close

26.37

wave 2 cannot retrace beyond the start of wave 1 (hard rule)

Structural target+12.3% from close

31.27

Wave 3 = 100% of wave 1

Reward : risk

2.3 : 1

Invalidation 5.3% from the reference level · 4.0 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 18% of 593 past cases, averaging +0.12R. It made money in both halves of the replay (+0.15R, then +0.09R). Method

Close call: the alternate count scores within a few points of the preferred one.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 368.9K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $12.5M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: FREL · massive: FREL
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (26.72, Oct 8, 2026) price has moved +4.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag complete ↓, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal up · wave 3 ↑

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 26.37, Mar 27, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−5.3% from close

26.37

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 3+12.3% from close

31.27

Wave 3 = 100% of wave 1

Nearest confluence zone+1.2% from close

28.07–28.26

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Flat up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction up.

A-B from 26.37, Mar 27, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 1 met, 0 not met

Met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 16, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 29.19.
Oct 15, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to downtrend.
Oct 13, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w3 ↑ (confidence 60).
Oct 13, 2026Structure changedIntermediate structure changed from higher highs and lows to expanding.
Oct 13, 2026Count droppedFlat wC ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w3 ↑.
Oct 13, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (up) and weekly (down) counts no longer agree.
Oct 13, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 9, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 28.12.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 26.61.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 28.15.
Sep 30, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 25.85.

Last swing high

30.92

Jul 28, 2026

Last swing low

26.72

Oct 8, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.