FNDE

Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Equity ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

42.44

−0.25 (−0.59%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveFlat complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 43.52–43.66 (6 relationships), +2.7% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +5.4% (ahead of SPY by 2.6 points); 6 months +4.1%.

RegimeUptrend+0.6% vs the 50-day average, +5.3% vs the 200-day.

RiskNear a key level20-day volatility 14% vs 16% over the year; 1-year drawdown −10.2%; beta 0.92; price within 3% of the count's reassess level.

FNDE setup history

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

FNDE · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 43.18 on Sep 4, 2026. 162 labelings tested, 105 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 105 labelings were eliminated

51Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
18Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
13Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
7Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
5Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
3Wave 4 does not enter the price territory of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 42.44

42.44close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

43.52 – 43.66+2.7% from the close

6 relationships · strength 5.2 · Minor degree

43.66ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
43.65ProjectionWave C = 161.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
43.63ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Minor · Essentials
43.56ProjectionWave 5 = 161.8% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
43.56ProjectionWave 5 = 61.8% of waves 1–3 · Minor · Essentials
43.52ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

42.44

Latest close

Invalidation+1.8% from close

43.18

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target−3.1% from close

41.11

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Reward : risk

1.8 : 1

Invalidation 1.8% from the reference level · 1.9 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 18% of 2,015 past cases, averaging −0.29R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.22R, then −0.34R), so treat it with caution. Method

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.77M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $88.6M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: FNDE · massive: FNDE
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

3 resolved: 0 reached target first, average −1.00R (small sample)Latest: 07-20 bullish Wave C under way → pending · 05-20 bearish Correction complete → invalidated · 03-03 bearish Correction complete → invalidated · 02-17 bullish Wave 5 under way → invalidated

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (43.18, Sep 4, 2026) price has moved −1.7%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 3 ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Flat up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave flat correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 39.83, May 19, 2026

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+1.8% from close

43.18

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−3.1% from close

41.11

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+2.7% from close

43.52–43.66

6 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Flat down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction down.

A-B from 37.84, Nov 13, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave C ends slightly beyond wave A (regular), substantially beyond (expanded), or short of it after an extended B (running)
Wave C measures 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A, depending on the flat type
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The flat is a regular or expanded flat; running flats are a rare variation

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 13, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 44.16.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 40.19.
Oct 5, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 43.67.
Oct 2, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 1, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Flat complete ↓ (confidence 67).
Oct 1, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Flat complete ↓.
Oct 1, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (down) and weekly (up) counts no longer agree.
Oct 1, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Oct 1, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 39.8.

Last swing high

43.18

Sep 4, 2026

Last swing low

39.04

Jun 26, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.