FERG

Ferguson Enterprises Inc.

NYSE · Common stock

231.61

+2.85 (+1.25%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

Watch

Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveFlat complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 78); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 239.41–240.54 (4 relationships), +3.6% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +1.1% (behind SPY by 1.7 points); 6 months −11.1%.

RegimeMixed+1.4% vs the 50-day average, −2.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 23% vs 30% over the year; 1-year drawdown −20.0%; beta 1.17.

FERG setup history3 resolved: 2 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

FERG · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 212.13 on Sep 21, 2026. 148 labelings tested, 107 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 107 labelings were eliminated

57Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
15Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
12Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
8Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
3Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 231.61

231.61close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

239.41 – 240.54+3.6% from the close

4 relationships · strength 4.4 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

240.54RetracementWave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3 · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
239.98Swing50% retracement of the decline 2026-08-10 → 2026-09-21 · Intermediate · Basics · secondary ratio
239.82RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Intermediate · Viridia
239.41ProjectionWave 3 = 161.8% of wave 1 · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.42 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.49M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $319.1M
SEC CIK: 0002011641
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: FERG · massive: FERG
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (212.13, Sep 21, 2026) price has moved +9.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: flat complete ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Flat down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave flat correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 256.93, Nov 12, 2025

Pattern Confidence78High

5 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−8.4% from close

212.13

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+3.5% from close

239.82

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+3.6% from close

239.41–240.54

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 271.64, Feb 12, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 5 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave C ends slightly beyond wave A (regular), substantially beyond (expanded), or short of it after an extended B (running)
Wave C measures 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A, depending on the flat type
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The flat is a regular or expanded flat; running flats are a rare variation
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed