FDXF

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.

NYSE · Common stock

113.21

+2.71 (+2.45%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveConstructiveZigzag complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 70).

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 115.12–116.82 (3 relationships), +2.4% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −24.6% (behind SPY by 27.4 points).

RegimeNot enough historyNeeds 200 sessions.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 29% vs 47% over the year; 1-year drawdown −42.3%; beta 0.21.

FDXF setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

FDXF · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest minor swing low, 105.75 on Oct 14, 2026. 214 labelings tested, 128 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 128 labelings were eliminated

63Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
25Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
10Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
7Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 113.21

113.21close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

115.12 – 116.82+2.4% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.2 · Minor degree

116.82RetracementWave 4 retraces 23.6% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
115.12ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
115.12ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Minor degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 70 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

113.21

Latest close

Invalidation−6.6% from close

105.75

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target+41.7% from close

160.46

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Reward : risk

6.3 : 1

Invalidation 6.6% from the reference level · 2.0 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 29% of 1,608 past cases, averaging +0.08R. Method

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisMinor degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 97 since Jun 1, 2026
Avg volume, 50 days: 1.52M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $172.9M
SEC CIK: 0002082247
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: FDXF · massive: FDXF
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (105.75, Oct 14, 2026) price has moved +7.1%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.

Preferred count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 194.27, Jun 9, 2026

Pattern Confidence70High

5 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−6.6% from close

105.75

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+41.7% from close

160.46

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+2.4% from close

115.12–116.82

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 194.27, Jun 9, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 5 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 16, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag complete ↑ (confidence 70).
Oct 16, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag complete ↑.
Oct 16, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 115.97.
Oct 15, 2026New leading countTriangle wC ↓ entered the top three counts.
Oct 13, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w3 ↓ (confidence 60).
Oct 13, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w4 ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w3 ↓.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 118.15.
Oct 6, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 117.26.
Oct 2, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Ending Diagonal w4 ↑ (confidence 60).
Oct 2, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Ending Diagonal w4 ↑.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 117.49.

Last swing high

194.27

Jun 9, 2026

Last swing low

141.33

Jun 1, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.