FBT

First Trust Amex Biotech Index Fund

NYSE Arca · ETF

263.60

−4.79 (−1.78%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveImpulse complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 71); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 271.08–273.44 (3 relationships), +3.3% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +7.5% (ahead of SPY by 4.6 points); 6 months +25.5%.

RegimeMixed−1.1% vs the 50-day average, +14.6% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 23% vs 22% over the year; 1-year drawdown −14.3%; beta 0.77.

FBT setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

FBT · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 275.23 on Sep 30, 2026. 164 labelings tested, 114 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 114 labelings were eliminated

45Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
21Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
14Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
9Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
8Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
6Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 263.60

263.60close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

271.08 – 273.44+3.3% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.2 · Minor degree

273.44ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials
272.60ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
271.08ProjectionWave E = 78.6% of wave D · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Five waves complete

Five waves look complete, so a correction in the other direction would normally follow.

Pattern Confidence 71 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

263.60

Latest close

Invalidation+4.4% from close

275.23

End of wave 5: beyond it wave 5 is still extending

Structural target−7.9% from close

242.86

End of wave 4: corrections tend to end near it

Reward : risk

1.8 : 1

Invalidation 4.4% from the reference level · 2.1 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 20% of 480 past cases, averaging −0.18R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.20R, then −0.16R), so treat it with caution. Method

Counter-trend trade against the five-wave move just finished.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 63.9K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $26.7M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: FBT · massive: FBT
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (275.23, Sep 30, 2026) price has moved −4.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (impulse) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 189.47, Mar 24, 2026

Pattern Confidence71High

10 of 13 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+4.4% from close

275.23

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−7.9% from close

242.86

Correction ends near the end of wave 4

Nearest confluence zone+3.3% from close

271.08–273.44

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Flat down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction down.

A-B from 224.94, Jan 22, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 10 met, 3 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
One actionary wave (1, 3 or 5) is extended, most often wave 3 in stocks
Wave 5 exceeds the end of wave 3 (a failure is called a truncation)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Wave 5 comes on lighter average volume than wave 3
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

When wave 3 is extended, waves 1 and 5 tend toward equality
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed