EWP

iShares MSCI Spain ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

58.27

−0.09 (−0.15%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveImpulse complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 75); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 56.4–56.73 (5 relationships), −2.9% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −0.7% (behind SPY by 3.5 points); 6 months −0.2%.

RegimeMixed−4.4% vs the 50-day average, +0.8% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 17% vs 19% over the year; 1-year drawdown −11.4%; beta 0.99.

EWP setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

EWP · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 63.44 on Aug 26, 2026. 362 labelings tested, 247 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 247 labelings were eliminated

63Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
50Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
42Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
36Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
27Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
21Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 58.27

58.27close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

56.40 – 56.73−2.9% from the close

5 relationships · strength 6 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

56.73ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials
56.64ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
56.55ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials
56.52Swing78.6% retracement of the rise 2026-05-04 → 2026-08-26 · Intermediate · Basics · secondary ratio
56.40ProjectionWave C = 161.8% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Five waves complete

Five waves look complete, so a correction in the other direction would normally follow.

Pattern Confidence 75 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

58.27

Latest close

Invalidation+8.9% from close

63.44

End of wave 5: beyond it wave 5 is still extending

Structural target−25.4% from close

43.45

End of wave 4: corrections tend to end near it

Reward : risk

2.9 : 1

Invalidation 8.9% from the reference level · 6.4 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 20% of 480 past cases, averaging −0.18R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.20R, then −0.16R), so treat it with caution. Method

Counter-trend trade against the five-wave move just finished.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 520.8K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $45.5M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: EWP · massive: EWP
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (63.44, Aug 26, 2026) price has moved −8.1%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: impulse complete ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (impulse) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 32.05, Feb 3, 2025

Pattern Confidence75High

10 of 12 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+8.9% from close

63.44

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−11.7% from close

51.45

Correction retraces 38.2% of waves 1–5

Nearest confluence zone−2.9% from close

56.40–56.73

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 46.56, Sep 2, 2025

Pattern Confidence70High

5 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 10 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
One actionary wave (1, 3 or 5) is extended, most often wave 3 in stocks
Wave 5 exceeds the end of wave 3 (a failure is called a truncation)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Wave 5 comes on lighter average volume than wave 3
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed