ESTA

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

59.18

−2.18 (−3.55%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveImpulse, wave 4 down (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 62.97–64.35 (5 relationships), +7.6% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −36.7% (behind SPY by 39.5 points); 6 months −11.8%.

RegimeDowntrend−14.7% vs the 50-day average, −18.5% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 48% vs 54% over the year; 1-year drawdown −39.5%; beta 1.33.

ESTA setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

ESTA · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 97.59 on Aug 3, 2026. 130 labelings tested, 94 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 94 labelings were eliminated

45Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
10Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
9Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
9Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
6Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
6Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 59.18

59.18close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

62.97 – 64.35+7.6% from the close

5 relationships · strength 3.7 · Minor degree

64.35ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
63.21RetracementWave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF
63.08Swing61.8% retracement of the decline 2026-10-06 → 2026-10-14 · Minor · Basics
63.08ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2, log scale) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
62.97ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

Price is already through the entry range, so the pullback entry has passed. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 393.9K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $24.7M
SEC CIK: 0001688757
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: ESTA · massive: ESTA
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (97.59, Aug 3, 2026) price has moved −39.4%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat complete ↓, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse up · wave 4 ↓

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave advance (impulse).

1-2-3 from 26.56, Apr 9, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−20.4% from close

47.11

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 4

None

No unreached Fibonacci target.

Nearest confluence zone+7.6% from close

62.97–64.35

5 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 26.56, Apr 9, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves

Not met

Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 63.72.
Oct 12, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 58.6.
Oct 9, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to downtrend.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 58.48.
Oct 5, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily and weekly counts now both point down.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 69.28.
Oct 1, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 60.1.
Sep 28, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 62.37.

Last swing high

97.59

Aug 3, 2026

Last swing low

53.16

Mar 31, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.