CVNA

Carvana Co. Class A

NYSE · Common stock

58.83

−1.79 (−2.95%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedTriangle, wave E down (Pattern Confidence 57); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 62.3–63.72 (4 relationships), +7.1% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −8.3% (behind SPY by 11.1 points); 6 months −24.1%.

RegimeDowntrend−13.5% vs the 50-day average, −16.7% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 51% vs 62% over the year; 1-year drawdown −41.2%; beta 2.36.

CVNA setup history4 resolved: 1 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

CVNA · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 76.80 on Aug 26, 2026. 44 labelings tested, 28 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 28 labelings were eliminated

12Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
9Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
3Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
2Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
1Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 58.83

58.83close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

62.30 – 63.72+7.1% from the close

4 relationships · strength 3.1 · Minor degree

63.72ProjectionWave E = 61.8% of wave C · Minor · Essentials
63.37ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
63.08ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2) · Minor · EWP · secondary ratio
62.30Swing61.8% retracement of the decline 2026-10-02 → 2026-10-14 · Minor · Basics

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

A triangle moves sideways; the setup comes with the thrust once the triangle completes. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 8.13M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $526.5M
SEC CIK: 0001690820
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: CVNA · massive: CVNA
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (76.80, Aug 26, 2026) price has moved −23.4%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↓, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Triangle down · wave E ↓

Price is in wave E of a sideways triangle.

A-B-C-D from 97.38, Jan 23, 2026

Pattern Confidence57Low

2 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−4.6% from close

56.12

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave E

None

No unreached Fibonacci target.

Nearest confluence zone+7.1% from close

62.30–63.72

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Zigzag down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction down.

A-B from 83.91, Apr 30, 2026

Pattern Confidence57Low

2 of 3 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 1 not met

Met

Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

In a contracting triangle each leg is roughly 61.8% to 85.4% of the one before

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed