CPRI

Capri Holdings Limited

NYSE · Common stock

15.95

+0.10 (+0.63%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureExpanding rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 75); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 16.7–16.96 (3 relationships), +5.5% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +0.1% (behind SPY by 2.8 points); 6 months −23.7%.

RegimeMixed+10.8% vs the 50-day average, −12.9% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 39% vs 45% over the year; 1-year drawdown −54.0%; beta 1.37.

CPRI setup history9 resolved: 3 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

CPRI · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 12.40 on Sep 10, 2026. 190 labelings tested, 135 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 135 labelings were eliminated

66Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
23Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
18Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
9Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 15.95

15.95close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

16.70 – 16.96+5.5% from the close

3 relationships · strength 2.6 · Minor degree

16.96RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Minor · Viridia · secondary ratio
16.93RetracementCorrection retraces 38.2% of waves 1–5 · Minor · Basics
16.70ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Five waves complete

Five waves look complete, so a correction in the other direction would normally follow.

Pattern Confidence 75 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

15.95

Latest close

Invalidation−22.3% from close

12.40

End of wave 5: beyond it wave 5 is still extending

Structural target+39.7% from close

22.28

End of wave 4: corrections tend to end near it

Reward : risk

1.8 : 1

Invalidation 22.3% from the reference level · 5.3 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 28% of 457 past cases, averaging +0.13R. It made money in both halves of the replay (+0.12R, then +0.13R). Method

Counter-trend trade against the five-wave move just finished.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 4.71M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $56.6M
SEC CIK: 0001530721
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: CPRI · massive: CPRI
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (12.40, Sep 10, 2026) price has moved +28.6%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag complete ↑, same direction

Preferred count

Impulse down · complete, next move up ↑

A five-wave decline (impulse) looks complete, so a correction up would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 28.27, Dec 4, 2025

Pattern Confidence75High

10 of 12 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−22.3% from close

12.40

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+15.7% from close

18.46

Correction retraces 38.2% of waves 1–5

Nearest confluence zone+5.5% from close

16.70–16.96

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Impulse down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2-3 from 28.27, Dec 4, 2025

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 10 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
Wave 4 retraces 14.6% to 38.2% of wave 3, and no more than 50%
Waves 2 and 4 alternate: one sharp and deep, the other shallow or sideways
Wave 5 exceeds the end of wave 3 (a failure is called a truncation)
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves
Wave 5 comes on lighter average volume than wave 3
Waves 2 and 4 alternate in time too: the shallower correction takes at least as long

Not met

One actionary wave (1, 3 or 5) is extended, most often wave 3 in stocks
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed