BND

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

70.82

+0.01 (+0.01%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveUnresolvedEnding diagonal, wave 3 down (Pattern Confidence 50); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciNo zoneNo confluence zone near price.

MomentumWeak3 months −2.6% (behind SPY by 5.4 points); 6 months −4.4%.

RegimeDowntrend−0.8% vs the 50-day average, −3.0% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 5% vs 4% over the year; 1-year drawdown −7.0%; beta 0.12.

BND setup history2 resolved: 1 reached target first, average +0.81R

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

BND · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 75.23 on Feb 27, 2026. 6 labelings tested, 0 broke a hard rule, 6 remain.

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 70.82

No price band within 35% of the close has two or more independent Fibonacci relationships.

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.52 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 10.45M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $929.3M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: BND · massive: BND
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Latest: 05-28 bearish Correction complete → expired · 03-17 bearish Correction complete → reached target

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (75.23, Feb 27, 2026) price has moved −5.9%, the way the count expects.6 of 6 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: ending diagonal wave 3 ↓, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Ending diagonal down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2 from 75.26, Sep 30, 2024

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+6.3% from close

75.26

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 3−3.3% from close

68.50

Wave 3 = 161.8% of wave 1

Nearest confluence zone

None

No zone within 35% of price.

Alternate count

Flat down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave flat correction down.

A-B from 75.26, Sep 30, 2024

Pattern Confidence50Low

0 of 0 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 0 met, 0 not met

Met

None.

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

No structural events recorded yet. Events compare each analysed session with the previous one.

Last swing high

75.23

Feb 27, 2026

Last swing low

71.10

Jan 13, 2025

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.