BKDV

BNY Mellon Dynamic Value ETF

NYSE Arca · ETF

34.37

−0.11 (−0.32%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedZigzag complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 60); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 35.44–35.58 (4 relationships), +3.3% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +3.6% (ahead of SPY by 0.7 points); 6 months +9.5%.

RegimeMixed−0.3% vs the 50-day average, +6.4% vs the 200-day.

RiskNear a key level20-day volatility 8% vs 12% over the year; 1-year drawdown −6.7%; beta 0.74; price within 3% of the count's reassess level.

BKDV setup history

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

BKDV · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 35.14 on Aug 11, 2026. 206 labelings tested, 153 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 153 labelings were eliminated

93Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
27Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
9Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1, 3 and 5 (satisfied on either a price or a percentage basis)
9Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
6Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
6Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 34.37

34.37close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

35.44 – 35.58+3.3% from the close

4 relationships · strength 3.6 · Minor degree

35.58ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials
35.49ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
35.47ProjectionWave 5 = 100% of wave 1 · Minor · Essentials
35.44ChannelWave 5 channel (line 2–4 through 3) · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

The intermediate-degree scenario was held back

Its levels didn't pass Viridia's checks: target over 100% or 25 ATR away. It's listed for review instead of shown.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 489 since Nov 4, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 485.2K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $23.2M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: BKDV · massive: BKDV
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Not replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (35.14, Aug 11, 2026) price has moved −2.2%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: impulse wave 4 ↓, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 21.87, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

4 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+2.2% from close

35.14

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−21.6% from close

26.94

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+3.3% from close

35.44–35.58

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal up · wave 4 ↓

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave advance (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 21.87, Apr 7, 2025

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 2 not met

Met

Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 16, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from uptrend to mixed.
Oct 15, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to uptrend.
Oct 5, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily and weekly counts now both point down.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 35.48.
Sep 30, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag complete ↓ (confidence 60).
Sep 30, 2026Count droppedEnding Diagonal w3 ↑ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag complete ↓.
Sep 30, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (down) and weekly (up) counts no longer agree.
Sep 30, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing high was confirmed.
Sep 30, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 32.1.
Sep 28, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 32.45.

Last swing high

35.14

Aug 11, 2026

Last swing low

28.93

Mar 30, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.