BANF

BancFirst Corporation

NASDAQ · Common stock

109.03

+0.88 (+0.81%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedFlat complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 111.48–112.09 (3 relationships), +2.5% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −6.3% (behind SPY by 9.2 points); 6 months −6.6%.

RegimeDowntrend−0.9% vs the 50-day average, −2.3% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 16% vs 25% over the year; 1-year drawdown −15.8%; beta 0.54.

BANF setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

BANF · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 103.90 on Oct 1, 2026. 82 labelings tested, 59 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 59 labelings were eliminated

21Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
18Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
8Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
4Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
3Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
2Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 109.03

109.03close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

111.48 – 112.09+2.5% from the close

3 relationships · strength 3 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

112.09ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
111.67ProjectionWave D = 78.6% of wave C · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
111.48RetracementWave 4 retraces 50% of wave 3 · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

109.03

Latest close

Invalidation−4.7% from close

103.90

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target+5.5% from close

115.02

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Reward : risk

1.2 : 1

Invalidation 4.7% from the reference level · 2.3 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 29% of 1,608 past cases, averaging +0.08R. Method

Close call: the alternate count scores within a few points of the preferred one.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 129.6K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $15.8M
SEC CIK: 0000760498
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: BANF · massive: BANF
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (103.90, Oct 1, 2026) price has moved +4.9%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: triangle wave C ↑, same direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 0 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Flat down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave flat correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 121.89, Apr 17, 2026

Pattern Confidence67Medium

4 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−4.7% from close

103.90

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+5.5% from close

115.02

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+2.5% from close

111.48–112.09

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Triangle up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a sideways triangle.

A-B from 101.48, Mar 19, 2026

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 4 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave C ends slightly beyond wave A (regular), substantially beyond (expanded), or short of it after an extended B (running)
Wave C measures 61.8% to 161.8% of wave A, depending on the flat type
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The flat is a regular or expanded flat; running flats are a rare variation

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 16, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Flat complete ↑ (confidence 67).
Oct 16, 2026Structure changedIntermediate structure changed from contracting to lower highs and lows.
Oct 16, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Flat complete ↑.
Oct 16, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily and weekly counts now both point up.
Oct 16, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 16, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 113.53.
Oct 12, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 111.88.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 111.79.
Oct 2, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 110.11.
Sep 30, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from mixed to downtrend.
Sep 30, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 100.27.
Sep 29, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 101.53.

Last swing high

113.79

Sep 4, 2026

Last swing low

103.90

Oct 1, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.