ARI

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc

NYSE · Common stock

6.38

−0.03 (−0.47%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveImpulse, wave 4 up (Pattern Confidence 78); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 6.65–6.68 (3 relationships), +4.5% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −6.6% (behind SPY by 9.4 points); 6 months −42.8%.

RegimeDowntrend−3.0% vs the 50-day average, −31.4% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 17% vs 39% over the year; 1-year drawdown −44.7%; beta 0.57.

ARI setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

ARI · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 6.11 on Oct 5, 2026. 176 labelings tested, 139 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 139 labelings were eliminated

75Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
21Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
15Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
12Wave 4 always retraces less than 100% of wave 3
9Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
3Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 6.38

6.38close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

6.65 – 6.68+4.5% from the close

3 relationships · strength 4.2 · Intermediate degree

6.68ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials
6.66Swing61.8% retracement of the decline 2026-08-13 → 2026-10-05 · Intermediate · Basics
6.65ChannelWave 4 channel (line 1–3 through 2, log scale) · Intermediate · EWP · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.50 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 2.95M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $20.3M
SEC CIK: 0001467760
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: ARI · massive: ARI
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (6.11, Oct 5, 2026) price has moved +4.4%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag complete ↓, opposite direction

Preferred count

Impulse down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2-3 from 11.24, Apr 15, 2026

Pattern Confidence78High

5 of 5 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+58.7% from close

10.13

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave 4+23.6% from close

7.89

Wave 4 retraces 38.2% of wave 3

Nearest confluence zone+4.5% from close

6.65–6.68

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Impulse down · complete, next move up ↑

A five-wave decline (impulse) looks complete, so a correction up would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 11.24, Apr 15, 2026

Pattern Confidence71High

10 of 13 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 5 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave 2 retraces 50% to 85.4% of wave 1
Wave 3 measures 161.8% or more of wave 1
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)
Wave 3 moves faster (price per bar) than waves 1 and 5
Wave 3 has the heaviest average volume of the actionary waves

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 15, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.48.
Oct 13, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Impulse w4 ↑ (confidence 78).
Oct 13, 2026Count droppedImpulse w5 ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Impulse w4 ↑.
Oct 13, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (up) and weekly (down) counts no longer agree.
Oct 13, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 13, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.64.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 6.02.

Last swing high

7.00

Aug 13, 2026

Last swing low

6.11

Oct 5, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.