APEI

American Public Education, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

49.19

+0.06 (+0.12%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureLower highs, lower lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveConstructiveZigzag complete, next move up (Pattern Confidence 80); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciZone aboveNearest confluence 50.7–51 (3 relationships), +3.4% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −0.2% (behind SPY by 3.0 points); 6 months −18.8%.

RegimeMixed+8.8% vs the 50-day average, −0.3% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 39% vs 44% over the year; 1-year drawdown −33.3%; beta 0.25.

APEI setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

APEI · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 40.06 on Sep 23, 2026. 164 labelings tested, 121 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 121 labelings were eliminated

54Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
23Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
21Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
6Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
6Wave B ends short of the start of wave A (a zigzag is a sharp correction)
5Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 49.19

49.19close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

50.70 – 51.00+3.4% from the close

3 relationships · strength 3.1 · Intermediate, Minor, Primary degrees

51.00RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Minor · Viridia
50.82Swing50% retracement of the decline 2026-04-21 → 2026-09-23 · Primary · Basics · secondary ratio
50.70ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.46 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

Setups at other degrees:

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 270.6K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $11.2M
SEC CIK: 0001201792
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: APEI · massive: APEI
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

MethodStructure: the intermediate-degree swing structure (higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, expanding or contracting). Wave: the preferred daily wave count's expected direction (constructive up, defensive down), unresolved when the alternate is within 5 points. Fibonacci: the nearest confluence zone of Fibonacci relationships and the distance to it (inside, or within 3%, counts as at a zone). Regime: price against its 50- and 200-day averages. Momentum: 3-month return and its lead over SPY (strong when both are positive and the lead is over 5 points; weak when both are negative). Risk: 20-day volatility against the 1-year level (elevated above 1.25×), and the 1-year drawdown and beta to SPY.

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (40.06, Sep 23, 2026) price has moved +22.8%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag complete ↑, same direction

Preferred count

Zigzag down · complete, next move up ↑

A three-wave zigzag correction down looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume up.

A-B-C from 61.59, Apr 21, 2026

Pattern Confidence80High

6 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess−18.6% from close

40.06

The pattern ended here. A move below it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move+8.5% from close

53.36

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone+3.4% from close

50.70–51.00

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Ending diagonal down · wave 4 ↑

Price is in wave 4 of a five-wave decline (ending diagonal).

1-2-3 from 61.59, Apr 21, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 6 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

What changed

Structural events, most recent first

Oct 13, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 49.61.
Oct 12, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily and weekly counts now both point up.
Oct 12, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 50.42.
Oct 8, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 48.89.
Oct 7, 2026New leading countEnding Diagonal w4 ↑ entered the top three counts.
Oct 6, 2026Trend changedTrend moved from downtrend to mixed.
Oct 6, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 47.33.
Oct 5, 2026New leading countNew leading count: Zigzag complete ↑ (confidence 80).
Oct 5, 2026Count droppedZigzag wC ↓ is no longer among the leading counts; now Zigzag complete ↑.
Oct 5, 2026Daily/weekly alignmentDaily (up) and weekly (down) counts no longer agree.
Oct 5, 2026Swing confirmedA new intermediate swing low was confirmed.
Oct 5, 2026New Fib zoneA new Fibonacci confluence zone formed near 45.64.

Last swing high

54.94

Aug 5, 2026

Last swing low

40.06

Sep 23, 2026

Elliott Wave

Wave counts are built on these swings and each one passes every rule in the rulebook. They are ranked by how many guidelines they satisfy; the preferred and alternate counts are summarized above the chart.

MethodPrice versus its 50- and 200-day averages: above both with the 50 above the 200 is an uptrend, below both with the 50 below the 200 is a downtrend, anything else is mixed. Swings: adaptive ZigZag on daily bars, pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1.