AAUB

Alpha Architect US Equity 4 ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

50.37

−0.81 (−1.58%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureNot enough swingsNeeds more confirmed intermediate swings.

WaveConstructiveZigzag, wave C up (Pattern Confidence 67); the weekly count agrees.

FibonacciAt a zoneNearest confluence 49.64–49.99 (4 relationships), −1.1% from the close.

MomentumNot enough historyNeeds 3 months of sessions.

RegimeNot enough historyNeeds 200 sessions.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 12% vs 13% over the year; 1-year drawdown −3.4%; beta 1.12.

AAUB setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.Track record

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

AAUB · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing low, 49.35 on Sep 2, 2026. 6 labelings tested, 1 broke a hard rule, 5 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 1 labelings were eliminated

1Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 50.37

50.37close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

49.64 – 49.99−1.1% from the close

4 relationships · strength 3.2 · Minor degree

49.99ProjectionWave C = 161.8% of wave A · Minor · Essentials · secondary ratio
49.96ProjectionWave C = 78.6% of wave B · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
49.68ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave B · Minor · EWF
49.64ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Minor · Essentials

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bullish setupActive now

Wave C under way

Wave C is under way, the final leg of the correction.

Pattern Confidence 67 · Medium

Reference level0.0% from close

50.37

Latest close

Invalidation−4.5% from close

48.12

wave B cannot go beyond the start of wave A (hard rule)

Structural target+5.5% from close

53.15

Wave C = 100% of wave A

Reward : risk

1.2 : 1

Invalidation 4.5% from the reference level · 6.3 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 19% of 2,346 past cases, averaging +0.18R. It made money in both halves of the replay (+0.18R, then +0.19R). Method

Counter-trend trade: wave C ends the correction, after which the larger trend resumes.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: On demand, then updated nightly
Daily bars: 61 since Jul 23, 2026
Avg volume, 50 days: 2.5K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $111K
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: AAUB · massive: AAUB
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (49.35, Sep 2, 2026) price has moved +2.1%, the way the count expects.5 of 5 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be up.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↑, same direction

Preferred count

Zigzag up · wave C ↑

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction up.

A-B from 48.12, Jul 29, 2026

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation−4.5% from close

48.12

Price below this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C+5.5% from close

53.15

Wave C = 100% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone−1.1% from close

49.64–49.99

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Impulse up · wave 3 ↑

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave advance (impulse).

1-2 from 48.12, Jul 29, 2026

Pattern Confidence60Medium

1 of 1 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 2 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed